Tag Archives: Marc Lichtenfeld

When to Avoid Risk, and When to Embrace It

23 May
When to Avoid Risk, and When to Embrace It By Marc Lichtenfeld
My ten year old has always wanted to make money.  Whether it’s a lemonade stand or the stock market, he is focused on business.

And to his credit, he’s not trying to make spending money for the latest Wii game or other frivolous purchases.  He’s got his sights set on college and starting a business someday.

The kid made a killing on a small cap biotech stock that I told him about last year, and now he wants to put the funds to work in some solid dividend payers.

So, this weekend we combed through dozens of stocks as I discussed the pros and cons of each one.

One basic concept that came up several times that all investors should be aware of is the idea of risk vs. reward.

It might sound overly basic, but you’d be surprised what you can learn (or re-learn) through the eyes of a ten year old child…

His eyes lit up when we talked about stocks with 5%+ yields, but these were riskier opportunities than a company like Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), which has a 3.7% yield.

Sure, Kimberly-Clark could see its margins get pinched, lose market share or suffer any other affliction that negatively impacts a business.  But chances are it’s going to continue to grow sales, earnings and its dividend at a slow but steady pace as it has done for decades.

The 5 percent yielders had unique risks.  For example, there were the healthcare REITS that could be impacted by the Supreme Court’s decision on Obamacare or any reduction in Medicare reimbursements.  He was interested in AT&T (NYSE: T), but that company has all kinds of technology risks, not the least of which is people dropping their land lines at an increasing rate.

These risks don’t mean that these aren’t good investments.  In fact, an investor is getting paid to take those risks in the form of a higher dividend and possibly a higher total return on the stock.

Chances are, Kimberly-Clark isn’t going to shoot the lights out as far as gains in its share price.  As a consistent dividend payer, it will probably do a little better than the overall market.

AT&T, if it executes properly, wins some big contracts, could be a strong performer.  Same with the REITS.

So, by the end of our discussion, he was clear that if you’re going to take more risk, you should have the potential for more reward.

Active traders should always consider risk vs. reward.  When I make a trade, I know where my exit will be before I place the trade.  I also try to figure out what my upside is.  If my potential gain isn’t three times what I’m risking, I don’t enter the trade, no matter how confident I am.

When I trade options, I use a two to one rule for speculating (although many times, the return is higher).

When investors or traders enter a position, they are often focused only on the future gains and don’t pay enough attention to risk.  Knowing in advance that the higher potential means you need to be able to withstand more volatility will help your success ratio and enable you to enter positions more intelligently.

Armed with that new information, my son has a much clearer picture of how the market works and is weighing his options.  He’s got a few stocks on his short list and will be putting some money to work soon.

Before we wrapped up our lesson, I told him that we were in the middle of a sell off and he immediately responded, “Good, that means the prices will be cheaper.”

That’s my boy.

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Marc Lichtenfeld
Contributing Editor, The Tycoon Report

Marc Lichtenfeld, Senior Analyst at Investment U, began his investing career at the trading desk of prestigious Carlin Equities in San Francisco, CA, where each day he executed dozens of trades for a varied and demanding base of clients.

During his tenure at Carlin, Marc outperformed both the S&P 500 and the S&P Healthcare Index by a wide margin.

But he really hit his stride at Avalon Research Group, where as Senior Analyst his buy recommendations advanced a full 17.8% versus the S&P 500’s 5.9%. When Marc wasn’t outpacing the S&P or performing his myriad other duties at Avalon, he found time to create, staff and manage their Technical Research Products division, and to develop another of his many passions — writing.

Marc looks at the market through the skeptical eyes of a born journalist. As a columnist for The Street he has broken several stories on companies in the biotech sector, winning the admiration of readers and the grudging respect of “insiders.” Marc has published his work in the online version of The Wall Street Journal and The Street, and he has been featured on NPR’s popular “The Story.”

Marc’s gift for seeing what others overlook has made him a champion contrarian investor. His “against the grain” recommendations (including shorts) gained 12.6% annualized versus the S&P 500’s gains of only 0.5%.

We are pleased and proud to be able to add Marc Lichtenfeld’s contributions to theTycoon Report.

3 Ways to Eliminate Trading Emotions

25 Apr
3 Ways to Eliminate Trading Emotions By Marc Lichtenfeld
Things were better when I was a kid.  I hate to be that guy who says those kinds of things, but it’s true.  I bet you’ll agree with me.

When I was a kid and played Little League or basketball, if you won the championship you got a trophy.  If you didn’t win the title, you got nothing — except maybe the urge to try harder next year so you could get one of those sweet trophies for your shelves.  The fact that we had to actually succeed made the trophies more meaningful.

Today, every kid gets a trophy for simply showing up.  I coach my seven year old’s soccer team and at the end of the season every kid gets a “participation trophy”.  And I have to say a few nice words about each kid as I hand out the awards.

What do you say about a kid whose head is constantly in the clouds, so much so that the ball literally hits her in the back of the foot while she’s standing there unaware that there’s a game going on around her?

Or how about the kid who is shooting down starships while the ball is coming towards him?

Nevertheless, there I was saying, “Great job this season.  Here’s your trophy.”

Seven year old space cadets get trophies they didn’t earn because everyone’s afraid their feelings will be hurt if they see other kids with an award.  Everyone is so darn emotional these days.

That’s especially true when it comes to trading.  We all have our biases, influences and insecurities that can affect our trading.  Emotion usually impacts our trading negatively.  It makes us exit trades too late because we’re overconfident or can’t stomach a loss, or we get out too early because we’re scared.  Emotions keep us out of trades because we’re gun shy after a few losers in a row.

If you could take just one step to improve your trading it should be this:

Remove emotion from your trading.

Easier said than done.

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But there are several things you can do to help smooth out the emotional peaks and valleys.  And they don’t require a prescription.

  • Use trailing stops — When you use a trailing stop, you cut your losses before they become too big and ensure that your winners don’t become losers, all the while, letting your winners run.  Most importantly, it takes the emotion of selling out of your hands.  It’s done automatically.  Just be sure you don’t lower or ignore the stop once you’ve set it.  That’s trading suicide.
  • Use a system — When you use a system, particularly one that has been backtested, you know going into a trade that it matches the parameters that have been proven to work in the past.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but if your system worked well in prior bull, bear and flat markets, you should feel pretty confident that trades you enter based on the system will have a higher success rate.

At that point, you can be almost robotic about it.  See what trades your system recommends, enter the trades, set your stop losses so that emotion is removed from the selling decision and get on with your day.

I know some people who literally do that.  They make their trades at the open and then are away from their computer the rest of the day.  They go play golf, go to work, meet friends for lunch, etc.  Later on in the evening, they’ll check their trades, see if they exited any positions, maybe study the markets a bit more, maybe not, and get ready to do it again the next day.

A system also helps you realize that trading is a numbers game.  You’re going to win a bunch of trades and lose a bunch.  Hopefully, your winners produce more profits than your losers produce losses.  But it’s easier to stomach losses when you know that, over the long term, your system generates a certain winning percentage or return on investment.

I used to feel like crap when I lost a trade.  I’d beat myself up for days.  Now, when I’m using my system, it’s just part of the process.  Like a home run hitter knows he is going to strike out occasionally, a successful trader will have losing trades.  In fact, some very successful traders actually lose more often than they win, but they keep the losses small and the winners outgain the losers.

For example, in my trading service, 6 out of 9 open positions are currently up.  Would I like it to be 9 out of 9?  Of course, but I know that not every position will work out.  What is working out is that the winning trades are far outpacing the losers.  The 9 positions are up an average of 12%.  And in 2012, our options positions are up 74%… and that includes losers.

  • Don’t Trade What You Can’t Afford to Lose — Imagine the worst stock market crash in history.  What would happen to your trading portfolio?  Can your family handle that kind of financial hit?  If not, you’re trading with too much money.  Scale back and trade with fewer dollars.  That way, if things go against you, it won’t cause as much anxiety and potentially cloud your decision to sell.
I can’t promise you that following the steps above will win you any trophies, but if you can eliminate emotion from your trading, it should greatly improve your results.

But now seriously, what do I say to a kid who shoots down spaceships during a game?

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Best Forex traders worldwide, give you advice for FREE to buy or sell. ZuluTrade converts this advice to a live trade in your broker account automatically, again for FREE! Unique service, I have already opened an account!

http://moonlightforex1.zulutrade.com

————————————————————————————————-

Marc Lichtenfeld
Contributing Editor, The Tycoon Report

Marc Lichtenfeld, Senior Analyst at Investment U, began his investing career at the trading desk of prestigious Carlin Equities in San Francisco, CA, where each day he executed dozens of trades for a varied and demanding base of clients.

During his tenure at Carlin, Marc outperformed both the S&P 500 and the S&P Healthcare Index by a wide margin.

But he really hit his stride at Avalon Research Group, where as Senior Analyst his buy recommendations advanced a full 17.8% versus the S&P 500’s 5.9%. When Marc wasn’t outpacing the S&P or performing his myriad other duties at Avalon, he found time to create, staff and manage their Technical Research Products division, and to develop another of his many passions — writing.

Marc looks at the market through the skeptical eyes of a born journalist. As a columnist for The Street he has broken several stories on companies in the biotech sector, winning the admiration of readers and the grudging respect of “insiders.” Marc has published his work in the online version of The Wall Street Journal and The Street, and he has been featured on NPR’s popular “The Story.”

Marc’s gift for seeing what others overlook has made him a champion contrarian investor. His “against the grain” recommendations (including shorts) gained 12.6% annualized versus the S&P 500’s gains of only 0.5%.

We are pleased and proud to be able to add Marc Lichtenfeld’s contributions to theTycoon Report.